Tropical cyclone threat
Peak wind intensities are predicted to increase by 5-10 percent in parts of South Asia, due to climate change1. This may result in more frequent and higher intensity cyclones striking Bangladesh and the strengthening of coastal storm surges aggravating coastal flooding2.
Furthermore, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal have increased by 0.4 -1ºC during the May to November cyclone months, which may also increase cyclone frequency and intensity3.
Approximately 30 million people live in the cyclone-prone coastal zone in Bangladesh. Of these, 5.2 million live within areas at high risk from cyclones and associated surges with 9,000 km² of land at high risk from flooding. Increasing number of peoples are compelled to live in these areas due to high population growth4.
1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis-Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group 1 Report. IPCC WG1, London.
2 Monirul Qader Mirza, M, Warrick, R.A & Ericksen, N.J. 2003. The implications on climate change on floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghan Rivers in Bangladesh. Climate Change. Vol. 57, pp 287-318
3 Khan, T. M. A, Singh, O. P. - Rahman, M.S. 2000. Recent sea level and sea surface temperature trends along the Bangladesh coast in relation to the frequency of intense cyclones. Marine Geodesy. Vol. 23, pp 103
4 Paul, A & Rahman, M. 2006. Cyclone mitigation perspectives in the islands of Bangladesh: A case of Sandwip and Hatia islands. Coastal Management. Vol. 34, pp 199-215